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SA Power Networks

GridGuardians SA

Amp up SA: Forecasting Electric Transport for Grid Resilience

Our Team

Jim Ye (Team Lead)
Candice Chen
Mark Jeremy
Group logo

Background

South Australia's Renewable Energy Pioneers

South Australia has emerged as a trailblazer in the renewable energy sector, achieving a remarkable feat in increasing its renewable energy share from less than 1% to over 70% in just 16 years. The state has set ambitious goals, aiming to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2030. This remarkable transformation signifies a significant shift towards a more sustainable energy future.


Grid Planning in a Renewable Era

However, with this abundance of renewable energy, critical questions arise. How do we strategically plan and adapt our electrical grid to meet the evolving needs and expectations of the public? For instance, have you ever hesitated to embark on a long journey in your electric vehicle, uncertain about finding a reliable charging station along the way?

Challenge

According to data from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and Australian Bureau of Statistics(ABS), it is estimated that electricity consumption in South Australia will surge significantly, potentially increasing by a staggering 100-fold by the year 2030. This exponential rise in demand can be attributed primarily to the proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs), the widespread adoption of solar panels, and the rapid expansion of fast-charging infrastructure.

Our challenge centers on predicting the growth trajectory of electric vehicles within South Australia and understanding their profound impact on energy demand. Additionally, we aim to assess the implications of this energy demand surge on South Australia's ambitious net-zero emissions target for the year 2050.

In the context of this challenge, we will delve into several key aspects:

Electric Vehicle Growth Prediction: We will employ data analytics and modeling techniques to forecast the growth of electric vehicles across various segments, including personal cars, public transit, and commercial fleets by different locations and age of vehicles. This prediction will be essential for grid planning and infrastructure development.

Energy Demand Analysis: Our project will scrutinize the increased energy demand resulting from the surge in electric vehicles, solar installations, and fast-charging points. This analysis will provide critical insights into how South Australia's grid must evolve to accommodate this demand effectively.

Alignment with Net-Zero 2050 Target: We will evaluate how the electrification of transportation might either accelerate or hinder South Australia's commitment to achieving a net-zero emissions target by 2050. This assessment is vital for ensuring a harmonious transition towards a sustainable energy future.

Our Approches


Comprehensive Data Integration for In-Depth Analysis

We have undertaken an extensive effort to seamlessly integrate diverse official data sources. This comprehensive approach enables us to conduct an in-depth, multi-dimensional analysis. By harnessing the power of these authoritative datasets, we gain insights that illuminate the complex nuances of South Australia's evolving energy landscape.


Leveraging Advanced Machine Learning for Precision Forecasting

In pursuit of heightened accuracy, we advocate for the strategic deployment of advanced machine learning algorithms. These cutting-edge techniques are capable of unraveling intricate patterns within the data. Furthermore, they possess the capacity to adapt and improve over time, elevating the precision of our forecasts. This advancement is essential for accurately projecting the growth trajectory of electric vehicles and the resulting surge in energy demand.


Real-Time Dashboard: Fusing Practicality and User-Friendliness

At the heart of our project lies the creation of a real-time dashboard that harmonizes practical functionality with user-friendly design. This dynamic dashboard serves as an intuitive interface catering to the diverse needs of both the general public and policy-makers. Through interactive data visualizations and customizable features, it empowers users to navigate and comprehend the projected impact of electric vehicle adoption on energy demand.


Direct Alignment with South Australia's Net-Zero 2050 Vision

Our unwavering commitment to South Australia's net-zero emissions target by 2050 finds a direct expression in our comprehensive report. Grounded in a profound sense of social and environmental responsibility, this report not only elucidates the consequences of electrification for the energy ecosystem but also underscores the intrinsic connection between sustainable practices and a flourishing future.

Conclusion

In "Green Path for Grid Resilience," our approach is underpinned by robust data integration, pioneering machine learning methodologies, an intuitive real-time dashboard, and an unequivocal dedication to sustainability. These elements collectively steer us toward a future defined by sustainability, resilience, and a harmonious coexistence with our environment. We eagerly anticipate sharing our insights, findings, and recommendations with all stakeholders, as we collectively pave the way toward a greener and more resilient South Australia.

Non-passenger Motor vehicles on register by type of vehicle

Source: abs.gov.au

Non-passenger Motor vehicles per capita 1000 by type of vehicle

Source: abs.gov.au

Non-passenger Motor vehicles average age by type of vehicle

Source: abs.gov.au

Energy Consumption for a 22 tonne truck:
Electric -Vs- Diesel

SA Power Networks

Source: Electric Vehicle Council of Australia

Expected energy demand for trucks

Based on projected growth for trucks along with the forecasted population increase (source: PlanSA) of 1.4% per annum (high estimate) and 1.1% per annum (medium estimate). The total eelectricity demand for trucks can be estimated.

Concept for monitoring the number of vehicles in each area/suburb of Adelaide.

SA Power Networks

If the environmental policies are directed towards incentivising people to replace thier old ICE cars to EVs. With cars more than 10 years old are more likely to be replaced sooner based on the average age of the cars. Then monitoring each suburb's number of vehicles would give a better view on the growth of potential demand when these older vehicles are replaced.

The map can provide additional parameter filtering for viewing the details for past years and see the rate of change in each area.

Top 10 suburbs with the most vehicles

SA Power Networks

Source: Electric Vehicle Council of Australia

Number of flight trips starting from Adelaide per year

Source: data.gov.au

Expected energy demand from aviation

SA Power Networks

Source: CleanTechnica

Electric passenger flights are a relatively new technology. And as such we do not have extensive information on the energy requirements for it.

The above table decribes the electricity required for common flights from Edmonton, Canada airport in MWh assuming Airbus A321